Pale Blue Dot

Title: Pale Blue Dot – A Vision of the Human Future in Space

Author: Carl Sagan

Publisher: Ballantine Books 1997 (First published: 1994)

ISBN: 9780345376596

Pages: 360

An impressive work by a renowned scientific mind that is also socially responsible. Carl Sagan is the epitome of the people-centric scientists who also foresaw the spurt in space exploration in the latter half of the last century. Nothing lighted up the society’s imagination like the daring attempts by two superpowers to outsmart each other in space science and technology. For once, the competition was a healthy one that spawned huge benefits to mankind. Though manned missions to outer-space are not cost effective as compared a robotic one, the sight of a few brave warriors smoothly sailing through the blackness of space to unknown worlds was exhilarating. The people, politicians and the bureaucracy were all mesmerized by the feat of man first setting foot on the moon. Continuing from this epochal event, Sagan speculates on the future of human species in space and addresses the issues that make it imperative for our society to expand its reach to other planets in the medium term and also to other stars in the long term.

Sagan was part of the NASA team associated with Voyager probes, which explored the worlds of the four outermost planets from Jupiter. He tells the thrilling story of Voyager 1, which was designed to photograph Jupiter and Saturn at close range. Chugging along with a radioactive plutonium based power source – since solar power would be too weak at such long distance from the sun – Voyager 1 was healthy enough in 1980 after its scheduled reconnaissance with Saturn, hardly three years after its launch. NASA decided to extend its working life to explore Uranus and Neptune as well. It did both splendidly and even the extended mission was complete. The author always wanted to take a picture of the earth from that distant vantage point. Many opposed the move, citing the motive as nothing related to science. But finally, Sagan had his way. Just before the radio technicians were to be shuffled out for other projects, the command to take a last photo of the mother plant was issued. So in 1990, Voyager 1 turned its cameras inward to from where it came from, taking care not to orient the highly sensitive optics towards the sun. The picture reached earth nearly five hours later. And it was worth the effort. Though nothing much could be discerned from the photograph, the presence of earth as a pale blue dot on the family portrait of the solar system fills one with awe and humility. That tiny speck of brightness fills us with elation at the technological prowess with which the instrument made by a bipedal ape could snap the shot and humility at the insignificance of it all. Sagan devotes a few chapters to drive the point home. Presenting a brief history of the origins of geocentrism, the author explains how religion exerts a decisive thrust in shaping the false idea of the earth being at the centre of the universe. Recent incarnations of geocentric models in the guise of the anthropic principle which states that the physical parameters of the universe would be somehow tuned for compatibility for the existence of life forms that inhabit the earth. Sagan’s refuting of the principle hits the bull’s eye with the picture of the pale blue dot. Much of the frame, except that tiny point, is empty and meaningless when viewed through the eyes of the anthropic principle. Life, then, should be treated as a rare coincidence in the history of the universe.

Having written this book in 1994, one might expect the content to be dated somewhat, considering the rapid progress usually associated with science and technology in every passing year. Sadly, this is not the case in interplanetary exploration. Sagan has obviously missed some probes sent later than the year of publication, but there are no path-breaking efforts on the part of any nation like the Apollo project which put men on the moon. The book explains the real significance of the race between two superpowers to safely land a human being on the earth’s natural satellite. Sagan comments that the project was conceived and run as a political program rather than scientific. The spinoffs expected from such a huge exercise employing cutting edge technology would surely be worth something militarily. At the same time, this program shifted the focus from military to the civilian level as far as the competition between the U.S and Soviet Union was concerned. The immense success – 12 Americans landed on the moon, and no other country has been able to replicate it – helped produce optimism about technology and enthusiasm for the future. U.S. touched greatness with the Apollo project. After the end of Cold War, funding to space programs dried up mainly because of the downgrading of high-profile strategic warfare in the list of priorities of rich nations. The people too, changed its mindset from appreciation of science to concerns about the mindless application of it. Global warming and ozone layer depletion were two prominent trouble spots on the industrial landscape when this book was going to press.

There exist a few people who question the utility of carrying out expensive space programs by Third World countries like India where a considerable segment of the society live below poverty line. They would challenge the justification for earmarking a portion of the budget on expensive scientific projects like the Mangal Yaan. The recurrent refrain is that this money should be spent on poverty eradication efforts, which also means that scientific research is a prerogative of the rich. But this logic is utterly flawed as this seeks to isolate the poor nations from the benefits accrued from new knowledge and materials that is a byproduct of the main program. Space exploration and study are not something rich nations do in their free time. The tear in the Ozone layer that wraps around the upper atmosphere and the discovery that chlorine-containing Freon is the reason for its depletion was identified only because the scientists were familiar with a similar phenomenon observed on the planet Venus. The problem could be identified in time only because we were ready for it. Similarly, human-induced warming of the planet as a result of Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide was first observed and studied in Venus, whose surface temperature is high enough to melt many metals. Venus was turned into an inferno because of Greenhouse effect. We have developed software models to predict the temperatures of Venus correctly. When these models were run with the conditions obtaining on earth, the results suggest heating up of the planet. Here also, we were ready for identifying the problem in light of experience gained from the study of another planet’s atmosphere. But the author’s third idea about nuclear winter appears superfluous. There will be a cooling off of the atmosphere as a result of an all out nuclear war between the big nations. Five scientists, including Sagan himself, informed the political leadership about such a prospect in view of the data obtained from other planets. However, the contingency of a nuclear war is now abated and this point is not very convincing at present.

A sizable part of the latter half is devoted to speculations on colonizing other moons, planets themselves, asteroids and comets in the remote edges of the solar system and even interstellar space. Colonization of the solar system is optimistically estimated to take place by around the next century. Leaving the technologies aside, the imposing task of making the other worlds habitable – terraforming – is daunting. Venus, Mars and Saturn’s moon Titan are the likely candidates. Sagan puts forward reasons for convincing the public and the politicians to compel national governments to set apart large sums in their annual budget for space travel and exploration. Any reference to Sagan is bound to evoke memories of SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) among readers. Not surprisingly, he devotes a few chapters to it, in which he tantalizingly states that he personally has come across eleven instances of detecting probable alien broadcasts through the analysis of data from a radio telescope devoted to SETI. The positive aspect attributed to conquest of other worlds and also to detecting the presence of other intelligent beings is that it is a global effort, as the difference between peoples of various nationalities is trivial as compared to the vast difference between us and them. The author also sounds a note of caution against the sophisticated and lethal technologies that are required for terraforming and moving around asteroids of deflect incoming comets falling into the hands of rogue states or psychic national leaders.

Reading the book after a lapse of two decades since its publication brings to light some points which have gone clearly out of date. Pluto was still a planet for Sagan, as the threat of CFCs for their ozone-depleting potential a burning issue. Confident predictions of large scale robotic or even manned space missions to Mars have not materialized by now, even though George Bush, while unveiling his plans for new space missions in 1989 predicted a football match in Mars by 2019. Sagan’s arguments in favour of SETI is forceful, but still not very convincing. References to the sighting of earth as a pale blue dot is the theme of the book, but not even a monochrome image of Voyager 1’s original photograph is included in the book. Perhaps this is good, as the image, which is accessible on the Internet, is so ordinary and featureless that we marvel at the amount of ideas Sagan had mined out of it. The book incorporates a nice set of references and a good index.

The book is highly recommended.

Rating: 3 Star

Billions and Billions

Title: Billions & Billions – Thoughts on Life and Death at the Brink of the Millennium

Author: Carl Sagan

Publisher: Random House, 1998 (First published 1997)

ISBN: 0-345-37918-7

Pages: 275

Ever the popularizer of science, Sagan’s works transcend the barrier of time that separates us from his original publications. In science, a decade is an eternity, particularly in the fast paced area of study defined by astrophysics. Naturally, it was with some wariness that I took this volume from the library shelf. But it soon delightfully proved me wrong. Sagan’s insight and intuition beat time to function as beacons of information and wisdom for many generations to come. The author was the David Duncan Professor of Astronomy and Space Sciences at Cornell University. He played a leading role in the U.S. space program since its inception. As a scientist trained in both astronomy and biology, he has made seminal contributions to the study of planetary atmospheres, planetary surfaces, the history of the earth and exobiology. Recognitions and awards accrued to him are enormous in that he had received 22 honorary degrees from universities worldwide. Though he is no more, his incomparable style of writing containing clear threads of wit and reason continue to inspire young minds wherever they are responsive. This book first appeared in 1997, but this unique set of 19 essays categorized in three parts justify their right to prolonged existence through the masterly analysis of scientific ideas expressed to illuminate even difficult concepts in a way that can be appreciated by any class of readers.

One of the irritating things about some scientists is their open espousal of superstition and irrational belief. We have heard about religious rituals being followed before the launch of satellites or space vehicles, the wearing of magical charms even by noted scientists and the general drive of people to observe auspicious time for doing important things. Sagan establishes that European science was also not immune to this corrosive effect of religiosity with a good example. When Isaac Newton, generally believed to be the greatest scientist ever lived, discovered the laws of gravity, he correlated the findings with the observed pattern of planets in the solar system. It may be recalled that all planets revolve around the sun in more or less the same plane somewhat like a flat disk. Newton was wonderstruck at this discovery and asserted that god has made them so. The great scientist could not think about any way other than divine tinkering to explain the observation of flat orbital paths. Nearly a century later, other less credulous scientists of the genre of Pierre Simon de Laplace explained the fact convincingly and with the help of no other theorem than Newton’s own – on gravity! The clarification is not very abstract and goes like this. A cloud of dust and gas from which planetary systems form begins to contract due to inherent gravity because of matter in the cloud. As the particles fly inwards, it starts to rotate and there is contraction along the axis of rotation due to gravity, but along the plane of rotation, contraction is further limited by angular velocity. A simple application of the formula resulted in a lucid recounting of the phenomenon only when we determined not to call in an external, divine entity.

The detailed chapter on global warming is more of a warning in nature than actually providing any statistics for the argument. Human-induced climate change may well be true, but judging from responses to the theory from scientists themselves, it seems that the issue is far from settled once and for all. While guarding against undue skepticism which takes too long to provide a fitting response to the problem at hand, the public need to get substantial evidence for the warming effect – not only warming, but that it is caused by human effort. Sagan’s attempt falls much short of this goal. He lists out a long roll call of the grave dangers of global warming such as frequent occurrences of extremely inclement weather, rise in sea levels caused by polar ice melting and expansion of seawater due to warming and desertification of prime agricultural land. However, going by the author’s famous dictum that ‘extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof’, his own chapter is found wanting in providing convincing proof for its claims. This is particularly relevant, as the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had been found goofing up the records many times in the past. The society must take this very seriously as only a cursory look at the fearful scenarios presented by the author will goad us to take handle warming in right earnest.

The book demands attention because of the sad fact that this is the author’s final work, before he succumbed to cancer. In a dispassionate way that is the envy of any writer, Sagan himself describes the slow descent to nothingness. His final chapter is continued, or culminated rather, in an epilogue by his wife and author, Anne Druyan. Sagan called for wisdom to be our legacy for future generations who are to follow in our wake. We see many philosophers and thinkers on atheistic and agnostic lines meekly submitting to expectations of divine help or prayer on their deathbeds or while they are terminally ill. No such dillydallying ever occurred in the case of Carl Sagan who stood firm in his belief that one should adhere always to the truth than one which only made us feel better for a short time.

The author was much concerned about the nuclear arms race that was an inheritance of the cold war era. We may feel that those chapters dealing with this grave issue of a previous generation as somewhat dated. At the same time, we must not lose sight of the grim reality that what the author cautions against, or what he ardently tries to open our eyes to, are issues that are relevant to humanity of all ages, till such time as the urge to violently win over our fellow brethren exists in us. While being a steadfast non-believer, the author does not fail in estimating the impact of religion and its leaders on the populace. We see in the text his enthusiastic turn of mind to go the extra mile to claim religion as a fellow traveler in the fight against environmental pollution. On matters of such grave potential as global warming caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the hole in ozone layer caused by chlorofluorocarbons, the author appeals to precincts sacred to religion in a bid to enlist their support for his crusade for making the world safer, cleaner and healthier.

The book is highly recommended.

Rating: 3 Star

Broca's Brain

Title: Broca’s Brain – Reflections on the Romance of Science

Author: Carl Sagan

Publisher: Ballantine Books 1990 (First published 1974)

ISBN: 0-345-33689-5

Pages: 381

The talent of the incomparable science writer that is Sagan, proves itself to be timeless through the reading of this brilliant work, published 38 years ago. The scientific era of Sagan and Feynman gradually transformed to that of Dawkins and Hawking in the last decades of the century and the reading public has enriched themselves through the writings of these four magnificent authors. Broca’s Brain is another dazzling effort from Sagan to shore up confidence and hope among the skeptics and free thinkers of the world. The breadth of the author’s creative range has something in store for every nuance of admirers of science and its method. The title, in fact, is a tribue to the Musee de l’Homme (Museum of Man) in Paris, which houses representative parts of human anatomy in varying stages of disgust. It also displays the brain of Paul Broca, who painstakingly conducted studies on brains and identified that part of it which is responsible for articulate speech and thinking – in a sense, that which delineated the human species from the rest. That region of the brain is called Broca’s Area in his honour.

The book is divided into five parts, dealing with various aspects of science touching our everyday lives – namely, Science and Human Concern, The Paradoxers, Our Neighbourhood in Space, the Future and the Ultimate Questions. A good drubbing is meted out to pseudoscientific practitioners in the second part. Sagan goes to great lengths to bring out the fallacies of their arguments with convincing proof, earmarking entire appendices for doing the calculations in a rigorous way, sticking firmly to the scientific method. Science is a quest for knowledge, what one can achieve is limited only by the number of neurons in the brain. The universe, with about 10⁸⁰ particles may seem out of bounds for the brain, had it behaved in mutually exclusive ways. But, rules of organisation restrict the number of ways in which the particles can be assembled. Such restrictions are called ‘laws of nature’. Scientists look for such laws, find it through intuition and skeptical analysis, subject them to falsifiable trials to check the predictions made by the theory and accept or reject it based on the results. No appeal to authority can be granted in science. However, there will inevitably be some borderline cases such as new theories of how the universe is behaving, which has not been subjected to intense experimentation and hence they are not yet accepted nor rejected. Charlatans exploit them to the hilt to hoodwink gullible people. Many scientists are reluctant to engage those impostors in their own game, attending calmly to their own work. Such attitude is detrimental as dubious ideas get imprinted on the public mind, unless they are repudiated at the slightest available opportunity. The best antidote to pseudoscience is science itself, whose findings are infinitely many times more mind boggling than the former’s. The gravitational force which binds the heavenly bodies and the DNA, which transfers heredity between generations are only to name a few among them.

Sagan goes on to unveil several myths. A common misconception is the visits by extraterrestrials to earth. There are people who attribute origins of religious miracles in sacred texts to alien influence. A curious case in point is that of Dogon tribe in Mali, West Africa. They possess a remarkably accurate set of astronomical beliefs, surpassing any ancient society anywhere in the world. They envision a solar system in which the planets revolve around the sun, know that planet Jupiter has four satellites and star Sirius has a dark companion rotating around it at a period of 50 years. These observations are not possible by naked eye, making the origins of these ideas puzzling for scientists. On the other hand, on most other aspects of creation myths, their ideas are as primitive and wild as that of other societies. Sagan attributes the sophistication of Dogon’s astronomical beliefs to contact with an exotic society – the European, not aliens! Probably, they might have assimilated these beliefs from Europeans visiting those parts, mutated them through internal usage and retransmitted to scholars who came later.

The book contains a very good chapter on The Climates of Planets, which surveys the atmospheric parameters affecting climate. Curious observations – in the sense of looking back by a modern reader – is furnished in the chapter. He says, “Some evidence on the trend of global temperature seems to show a very slow increase from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to about 1940, and an alarmingly steep decline in global temperature thereafter” (p.228). How can we reconcile this statement with the modern contention that global warming is taking place in alarming proportions?

Being an astronomer himself, Sagan reserves considerable preference to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It is important ethically and practically to confirm whether societies as or more advanced than ourselves exist and how they managed to solve some of the survival issues facing us. This assumes significance as the book was written at the peak of cold war between U.S and the Soviet Union. If not for anything else, the technology we develop for the search may turn out to be useful for other more immediate practical purposes. Even if the search fails to locate any indication of life elsewhere, the revelation will bring with it a sense of responsibility to carry forward the civilization which we so painstakingly built up from scratch using 4.6 billion years of evolution.

The book is distinguished by the mark of inspired wisdom, presented as deductions from basic principles. Such a prescient caution to mankind is offered while describing Venus’ atmospheric turbulences. It has a very high level of CO₂, producing a greenhouse effect which makes the planet uninhabitable to life forms, being at a temperature of 480 deg C. The author warns that our terrestrial technical civilization has the capacity to alter profoundly the environment of earth (p.181). It also contains an excellent chapter on the naming conventions and protocols of satellites of planets, asteroids and their surface features like craters, mountains and volcanoes. As the author was party to several such nominations, the readers enjoy a comprehensive treatment of the subject. Now, non-western civilizations are also candidates for such appellation. This has touched a special chord with my own interests, as I had recently compiled a list of such names having Indian roots. You can find it in my blog under the heading ‘India in the Solar System’.

The most serious drawback discernible is that the articles are dated, published more than 35 years ago, which is a long era in modern science. Several illustrated points like search for extraterrestrial intelligence are not of much concern in the latest focus. Sagan accords unnecessary concern to demolish the arguments of Immanuel Velikovsky who published a book, titled ‘Worlds in Collision’ in 1950, postulating that the biblical miracles like plague on Egyptians and the parting of the Red Sea before Moses were based on a close encounter with a portion of Jupiter which came this way and which later settled as an inner planet – Venus! No body gave any serious thought to this crazy idea, but the author set aside a long chapter and several appendices with detailed calculations, refuting the theory. This seems like using a sledgehammer to kill a fly, but the fly is killed nevertheless!

In another article, Sagan lists out the mechanism of meteors appearing on Earth’s surface and surmises that the black stone of Kaaba in Mecca – the holiest Muslim shrine in the world – is a meteor. He proposes testing a tiny piece of it to ascertain the veracity of this idea, which looks absolute naivete on the face of Islam’s attitude to such proposals. Also, in the chapter on communication with aliens, he asserts that intelligence of the other party could be discerned in several ways, sending pulses in prime number sequence one among them. A list of the first few primes are listed as 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and so on (p.320). Unfortunately, this seems to be a slip as ‘1’ is not a prime number. An unfortunate error from a great author!

The book is highly recommended.

Rating: 3 Star