Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The End of Science




Title: The End of Science – Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age
Author: John Horgan
Publisher:  Abacus, 2009 (First published 1996)
ISBN: 978-0-349-10926-8
Pages: 281

John Horgan was a senior writer at Scientific American for several years. With an impressive resume of summing up and balancing scientific literature, he moves in to the field with a sizeable contribution from his own pen. Horgan places before the reader the essence of what he has learned reading through all kinds of varied knowledge put forth through the pages of the venerable scientific journal. This book is a collection of wisdom gleaned from interviews with prominent academicians in the respective fields like physics, evolutionary biology, chaos theory and others.

Science made the modern human society. It gave durable insights into the nature of things. In fact, the author wonders whether we are reaching or have reached the ultimate frontiers of science and whether we will soon discover what is there to discover and what the direction science would be taking in the new millennium. Pure science, which is the quest for knowledge about what we are and where we come from, has entered an era of diminishing returns. The era of great inventions or discoveries are long past. Nothing comparable to the theory of gravity, natural selection, relativity or quantum mechanics are likely to adorn the walls of future science, Horgan argues. Science’s greatest drawback is its past success. Like the economists say, returns expected of investment in science is diminishing at a fast rate. Public funds may not last if such diminishing returns persist.

Nothing illustrates better the apprehension that the end is near as in physics. He interviewed noted physicists like Steven Weinberg and philosophers like Feyerabend and concludes that the scholars share the gloom caused by reaching at the ‘Theory of Everything’, or the final theory, or the Answer. After it is discovered (or invented, depending on how you view it), there would be nothing more for theoretical physics to ponder over. As a suggestion about the nature of the final theory, he proposes superstrings, an idea which gained much prominence in the 90s, but soon proved to be untestable with current technology. Cosmology is also beset with problems. Horgan elaborates on Fred Hoyle, the noted physicist who followed maverick ideas a bit too deep. Hoyle opposed the big bang theory, it was in fact his coinage, to make fun of the theory. This is a major issue with Horgan and his book. Whenever a chance presents itself, the author goes after long discredited scientists whose ideas verged on the crazy. In the end, the era around 2000 may appear to be the golden era of cosmology. As more data flood in the years to come, it may become more like botany, a vast collection of empirical facts only loosely bound by theory.

Evolutionary biology is the field where the practitioners seem to have reached the consensus that the most basic ideas about how life evolved has been successfully resolved. Darwinist theory of evolution and natural selection has withstood the test of time and new ideas like no scientific theory has ever done. Even though modern scientists like Stephe Jay Gould criticizes Darwin, they don’t dare to claim that Darwin was wrong. The most the credible opponents can come up with is that the theory is incomplete. However, science has still to do a lot to explain how life originated in the first place. Chaos theory is another branch whose growth is stunted due to the lack of perceptible breakthroughs either theoretically or empirically. They have created some potent metaphors: the butterfly effect, fractals, artificial life, the edge of chaos and self-organized criticality. That’s about the size of it all.

We would be astonished to see a serious science journalist speculating about the end of science already achieved when in fact a whole slew of discoveries are just beyond the horizon. This brings to mind the consensus among leading physicists in the 19th century that physics will be over by about 1900. With the benefit of hindsight, we should not fall in such a self-congratulating honeytrap. Author’s selection of experts is not rational. Introducing Stuart Kauffman as the biochemist who is a radical challenger of Darwin is a case in point like “Kauffman began to suspect that Darwin’s theory of evolution was seriously flawed, in that it could not account for the seemingly miraculous ability of life to appear and then to perpetuate itself in such marvelous ways” (p.132). Wow! The two magical words, miraculous and marvelous appearing in one sentence and you still call it scientific?

The contents are a little outdated, being published in 1996. Nanotechnology, which would obviously present an opportunity to reap great benefit has not had any place in Horgan’s narrative. He maintains a disdainful attitude to technology as a whole. Many parts of the book are plain boring. Readers would be happy to see the end of the book, rather than the end of science.

On the other hand, there are certain passages in the work which are illuminating examples of the supremely interesting and humorous aspects of the journalist in Horgan. Descriptions of the interviewees and their attitudes enhance the author’s stature as a journalist in no uncertain terms.

Rating: 2 Star

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Great Feuds in Mathematics















Title: Great Feuds in Mathematics – Ten of the Liveliest Disputes Ever
Author: Hal Hellman
Publisher:  John Wiley, 2006 (First)
ISBN: 978-0-471-64877-2
Pages: 217

Hal Hellman is the author of a series of books on Great Feuds in Science, Medicine and Technology. This is the fourth in the series, centred on mathematics. He has published articles in the major newspapers and magazines of the U.S. Mathematics is an area of science, ruled by cold, logical discipline where questions are decided objectively and decisively. Naturally we would consider the possibility of feuds and disputes that should arise between mathematicians to be very remote. People often assign characteristics pertaining to the field of study on to the behaviour of its practitioners. In this respect, mathematics is a field of study which brooks no quarrels or simmering tensions because of the logical nature of its subject matter. But, mathematicians are also human beings and questions of primacy, originality and deceit arise among them too. Just as you won’t expect zoologists to be unruly and wild, you can’t expect mathematicians to be logical and straightforward.

This book describes in detail, ten of the liveliest quarrels, starting from 16th century Italian mathematicians Tartaglia and Cordano on solving cubic equations right up to the 20th century, with the vigorous dispute between absolutists/platonists and fallibilists/constructivists. As the centuries unfold before our eyes, we understand the platonic shift that has taken place between the practitioners. In those early ages, information was a hidden treasure. If you chance upon a novel way of solving a particular class of equations, you keep the method to your bosom. Your chances of survival in an unsure world may depend on your ability to reproduce it effectively before an enlightened audience or a rich sympathiser. This has radically changes in modern times, the slogan metamorphizing to ‘Publish or Perish’. Whatever you have – even precocious ideas – is to be put before your peers lest others get there in front of you.

The most energetic and arresting dispute among them all is that took place between Isaac Newton and Wilhelm Gottfried Leibniz. Newton developed rudiments of calculus, the most widely used mathematical tool today, be it in pure science or in technology. In 1665, he called it method of fluxions, but delayed publication for several years. Leibniz independently found it in 1673 but published ‘soon after’, in 1684. Newton withheld publication till 1704. When they both appeared, the question of primacy naturally ensued, with both sides obtaining the support of their compatriots and sympathizers who didn’t have sole mathematical considerations in their hearts. Leibniz had followers in the continent, while Newton had Britishers on his side and the Royal Society, whose president he was. Both sides accused the other of plagiarism, but Newton’s increasing stature and Leibniz’ failing luck decided the matter. Newton emerged the clear winner, but later events proved that Leibniz’ method and notation was easier and versatile. The modern world uses it. So it may be said that Leibniz lost the battle, but won the war.

Personal feuds even crossed family ties, as exemplified by the tussle between Jakob and Johan Bernoullie. Johan was the younger who was tutored by his elder brother. They soon quarrelled over the use of calculus, both accusing each other of stealing from their work. When the time period enters the 19th century, the mathematics get more complicated and uninteresting making the book tedious and a great bore. Chapters on mathematical logicism and philosophy is really punishing the readers. The issues that burnt between Cantor and Kronecker, Russell and Poincare, and Hilbert and Brouwer are simply unworthy to be mentioned in a book targeting the general reader.

Hellman lacks the authority to seal the issue at hand. Whatever he has written is clearly second-hand material, those scavenged from biographies and incidents reproduced somewhere else and taken without much ‘value addition’ by the author. Being no mathematician himself, what he has succeded in producing are half-baked opinions like such and such commented such and such on this particular issue. Except the first three-four chapters, the book is thoroughly unappealing and taxes heavily on the reader’s patience.

The book is recommended only for the heavily mathematically inclined.

Rating: 2 Star

Thursday, July 19, 2012

City of Djinns


Title: City of Djinns – A Year in Delhi
Author: William Dalrymple
Publisher:  Penguin, 2004 (First published 1993)
ISBN: 978-0-143-03106-2
Pages: 343

Dalrymple is an acknowledged Indophile whose other books have also been reviewed earlier in this blog, like The Last Mughal, The White Mughals and Nine Lives. He was born in Scotland and is a fellow of the Royal Society of Literature and the Royal Asiatic Society. Besides writing, Dalrymple has presented television documentaries on Indian topics. His wife, Olivia Fraser is herself an artist who has produced the remarkable illustrations adorning the pages of the book. The couple now divide their time between London and Delhi.

The book is in essence what the author saw and thought during his year-long stay in the Indian capital city in 1989-90. He borrows the concept of djinns (spirits said to have been created from fire) from Muslim folklore to make the theme of the book, a portrait of a city disjointed in time, a city whose different ages lay suspended side by side as in aspic, a city of djinns (p.9). The author peels through the thin layers of history surrounding the core of the city, the recent ones first. Thus, the British presence is dealt with first, followed by the struggle of the last of the mughals in 1857, consolidation of the British during early 19th century, last remnants of Mughal structure in the 18th, Shah Jahan’s founding of the city during middle-17th, Tughluk’s period during the sultanates, Prithvi Raj Chauhan, and into the mists of pre-history, like Indraprastha and Hastinapura of Mahabharata. Each section is amply made lucid by interactions with noted personalities from Delhi who has made it their speciality of study.

Delhi enters prehistory through the Mahabharata epic. The palace of the Pandavas, Indraprastha, was situated there. Though archeologists differ about the scale of magnificence of the Pandava structures, there is no denying, from excavated remains that a civilization which has produced fine pottery known as painted grey ware, has been flourishing along the coast of river Jamuna around 2800 years before. After a long hiatus, Delhi again comes into the picture with Prithvi Raj Chauhan who made the mistake of pardoning his Afghan enemy once in the war – Mohammed of Ghor! He came back with a larger force the next year, defeated and beheaded Chauhan in 1192, inaugurating six centuries of Islamic rule in the city. The middle ages saw flashes of splendour echoing along the streets of Delhi in the superb buildings made by emperor Shah Jahan. What we see in Old Delhi is the remains of fine structures built by that megalomaniac autocrat. 

Shah Jahan was ousted from the throne by his treacherous third son, Aurangzeb who declared war against the country and its culture. Lot of temples were destroyed or desecrated resulting in resentment throughout the empire. No wonder that the empire began to crumple no sooner Aurangzeb died in 1707. The 18th century was an era of palace intrigue, treachery, and degenerate morals. The British came on the scene not much later, who gradually sunk their claws into the flesh of Islamic society and mercilessly tore down the social order when it effectively crushed the rebellion of 1857. Lutyens modelled a new city, New Delhi, which remains the seat of power of the Indian government.

The book is eminently readable, with its presentation of characters throughout the chapters in the form ordinary Delhiites, like the landlord, the taxi driver, the Persian-language professor and numerous such people. One thing which emerges from the treatise is the helping mentality of the common people. It is not to be confused with the normal mindset of the people, who will nevertheless be willing to extend a helping hand to a foreigner staying amidst them. Dalrymple also displays an aspect of Indian society – venality – which permeates all spheres of society, be it politics, religion, social relations and administration. Indians must take note of this disturbing fact, which keeps on churning to the top from the writings of foreign authors, right from the 15th century Arab and Portuguese travelers. Dalrymple just confirms the notion in a gentle, apologetic way. The book is very humorous and is a delight to read. The section in which the author dissects through newspaper advertisements for arranged marriage is taking hilarity to new heights.

One downside which can be pointed out is that, as always, Dalrymple caters to British sensitivities about India. There is no arguing that the book appeals equally strong to the Indian reader, but a British one is more at ease while reading it. The native reader experiences a whole panoply of emotions like pride, curiosity, anticipation and even outright shame by going through the work, the foreign one feel a sense of déjà vu – it simply reaffirms what he had had already in his mind.

The book is strongly recommended.

Rating: 3 Star

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Physics of the Future




Title: Physics of the Future
Author: Michio Kaku
Publisher:  Allen Lane, 2011 (First)
ISBN: 978-1-846-14268-0
Pages: 368

A good work to guess the road science will take in the next hundred years. Michio Kaku, himself a world-class theoretical physicist, has produced this book after interviewing hundreds of distinguished scientists, each one master of their own particular field of study. The greatest pitfall one has to overcome in hazarding guesses about the future is the severe underestimate one normally makes of the potential of science. We are so groomed to the way things are at present, that we fail to appreciate how science can jump over the seemingly insurmountable obstacles we face today. Even renowned scientists are not free from such prejudices, as Lord Kelvin noted in a self-satisfied way in the 1890s that physics will be over in a few years! This was even before the development of quantum mechanics, relativity and the computer revolution that was to transform the 20th century into the most productive one in the entire human history.

The book is well categorized into salient points which are going to define the coming century. The future developments possible in computers, artificial intelligence, medicine, nanotechnology, energy, space travel, wealth creation and human civilization are identified and explained. Computers would become so cheap and ubiquitous that we may fail to see them as chips begin to be at the core of every conceivable thing we may use in the future. Kaku’s only alarm is the date on which Moore’s law may break down. The famous hypothesis states that computer power doubles in roughly 18 months. The law, formulated in the 1960s when computer age was just kicking off has stood intact so far, resulting in cheap computing power so that the masses can afford it. However, physical constraints would sooner or later put brakes on the application of the law, which would be a great barrier in progress for mankind existing at that time.

Human comfort will be boundless, with medicinal facilities in full stream, to eliminate all our diseases and dangerous conditions. Our life spans will be increased several fold and one would be able to choose the age to remain for a long time. Robots would accompany us everywhere, whose intelligence would be on near par with humans. The horrendous amount of energy required for all these endeavours will be generated by super-efficient mechanisms, like hydrogen, cold fusion, or antimatter. Interstellar travel may start to become possible around the end of the century. Kaku introduces a classification of civilizations based on the amount of energy they consume. A Type 1 civilization uses all the available energy of a planet, and can control the living conditions in the planet. A Type 2 civilization exploits all the energy of star, while a Type 3 civilization uses the energy available in a whole galaxy. On this scale, our existing society is yet to reach Type 1 status, the most we can claim is a Type 0.7 society!

Kaku muses over the nature of human relations in this advanced era. The nature of jobs available would radically differ from the current ones. Those who do repetitive and purely mechanical work may find themselves unemployed by robots. But pattern recognition and common sense are two aspect which the robots would not be able to achieve in the foreseeable future. So, people indulging in creative work like art, design, music and similar areas would flourish. Wisdom would be the one thing badly in need at that time. Commerce and trade also would transform dramatically. In place of the commodity capitalism in vogue, intellectual capitalism would dominate the earth. Information is poised to become a prized commodity of the coming era.

The book is splendidly researched, with inputs from hundreds of experts. However, Kaku’s narration pales into mere reporting when fields other than his specialization come into view. When confronted with the advances plausible in various areas like medicine and commerce, the quality of the output is not comparable to those from the fields of space travel or computers or artificial intelligence. The book ends with a relevant quote from Mahatma Gandhi, which every nation and every person should keep in their hearts, irrespective of the technical excellence of the society they live in. On the layout, the book spans 368 pages, which should be cut down a bit in future editions. Readers would definitely appreciate some brevity.

The book is recommended.

Rating: 3 Star

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

The End of Oil



Title: The End of Oil – The Decline of the Petroleum Economy and the Rise of a New Energy Order
Author: Paul Roberts
Publisher:  Bloomsbury, 2005 (First published 2004)
ISBN: 978-0-7475-7081-3
Pages: 341

No one, who is familiar with the vagaries of oil-dominated world energy order would doubt about the urgent need for a new order based on some other resource than oil. Uncertainties in supply, exploration, transportation and pricing make this commodity a hugely expensive one for most countries. Paul Roberts’ excellent work on the energy scenario and illuminating discussions about the future alternatives serve to be an eye opener to society. End of Oil, is a very good effort to strike at the root cause of the problem and suggest viable alternatives when supply of oil would surely be restricted in the not-too-distant future.

The book begins with a good introduction on world economy based on energy. It all started with firewood, but excessive cutting denuded the forests too soon, by middle ages. Around 13th century, wood was in short supply. Coal rose to fill the vacuum and rose to become a major commodity by 16th century. Coal’s dominance lasted for three centuries, but the discovery of crude oil, a cleaner fuel which also moved automobiles displaced coal from almost every sphere of activity in which the quantity is low. The last century was definitely an era of oil. It controlled every aspect of production, transportation and every sphere of economic operations. World wars were fought to control the sources of oil. Allied forces could win both world wars because they could force the Axis powers out of oil supplies. The lust for oil accounts also for unexplained events like Japan’s invasion of Pearl Harbour in 1941. It was mainly to prevent the U.S. Navy from blocking Japanese tankers reaching oil-rich Indonesia which was already under their rule. Similarly, Germany embarked on a disastrous invasion of USSR to reach the oil rich territories of Azerbaijan and nearby Caspian.

Today, the oil prices are booming. Much depends on the issue of when the peak in oil production appear. After that event, production would go down each year, though demand would continue its increasing spiral as more and more countries try to reach the rewards of economic upliftment. The estimates for available oil is very tricky – it also reflects the thinking of the organisation which prepared the estimate. Generally, governments and oil companies paint a rosy picture guesstimating the peak not to come before several decades are past. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Energy Information Administration are the two prominent organisations having extensive statistics, but their figures are wildly optimistic, deliberately designed so to placate political masters. As non-OPEC oil is exhausted, the world would be at the mercy of OPEC, which is politically unstable, religiously fanatic and still keeping an anti-Western, medieval mindset.

Climate change, resulting from man-made global warming is a very serious issue associated with the energy order based on oil. A way-out appeared in the form of Kyoto Protocol in 1997 which sought to curb the CO2 emissions by countries. The developed nations took the lead in declaring self-imposed restrictions in industrial emissions. However, the agreement was a dead horse right from the very beginning due to intransigent policies of the U.S who saw the entire episode as an orchestrated European plan to undercut the American economy by imposing crippling emission standards. U.S., the world’s largest polluter is not willing to acknowledge the fact and contribute to mitigating action. CO2 level, which is 370 ppm at present may shoot up to 550 ppm in the not too distant future, which would tip the world to irreversible warming. Reduction in emissions is only possible with new technologies. Fuel cell is an option, which generate electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen. Emission is nil, steam being the only thing going out. At present, the technology is still in its infancy and costly. It faces huge engineering challenges to enter commercial viability, but with volume, the issues are expected to be settled.

Renewable energy is the alternative that is going to make some impact in the coming decades. Solar cells and wind energy are the media of choice. With technological improvements and economies of scale, both technologies can show impressive growth and be competitive with coal and gas-based power. The most important drawback facing them at present is the intermittency and lower power density. Wind and sunshine is not available continuously and requires larger equipment to be installed to produce a given power than traditional sources like coal or gas. A solar panel may provide a maximum of 20% of installed capacity, wind farm 33%, while nuclear gives 80% and coal and gas equalling 90%. This necessitates companies to overbuild, to install more than is required, to cater to the needs of consumers. If 100 kW is required to be produced, in the case of solar, this means 500 kW capacity has to be installed, to get the required power. As they require more area per unit power, these renewable sources are to be moved away from urban areas, causing long transmission lines to be installed.

In lengthy explanations of the different circumstances associated with oil economy, Paul Roberts lists out an action plan for the upcoming energy order. Any upset in the oil pipelines, actual or perceived is bound to cause lasting effects on economies. Immediate switching over from oil to gas (LNG) is the prime requirement. This is only a transition phase, as it is cleaner and more abundant than oil. Development of renewable energy technologies should be undertaken at this stage. Ultimate changeover to hydrogen should begin in the next stage. Hydrogen may be produced by converting LNG or by electrolysis using renewable power. This will solve the intermittency problem as well, because during the lean time, hydrogen may be used to generate power using fuel cells. When excess power is available, it may be used to produce hydrogen and store it.

The book is a very good attempt to open the complacent eyes of Americans who abhor any exhortation to conserve or increased efficiency. In the mad rush to ever larger homes and SUVs, Americans lose sight of the critical nature of the resource they use so cavalierly or who would be controlling oil in the future. Anyone reading this book is surely motivated to at least explore the possibilities of increased fuel efficiency  for transportation or domestic purposes.

The book was written in 2004 and that is the great disadvantage. Much data is dated. It doesn’t account for the immense surge in oil prices around 2008-09. Perhaps a second edition of the book may incorporate these figures too. A lot of repetitions occur in the text, with unnecessary ballooning of descriptions. Readers get tired from such occurrences. More disappointingly, Roberts is concentrating narrowly on the American point of view. He implies that the Third World can’t see what is good for them and the world, but the U.S. need to teach them what to do. One of his worries is the surge in oil demand when third world nations begin their journey on the road to prosperity. The book presents a too rosy picture for renewable energy. As the author says, “Today, wind-generated electricity can be produced for around 4.8 cents a kilowatt-hour – around 2 cents more than the wholesale cost of electricity from coal, gas, nuclear or hydro.”,. But this argument is misleading. The difference is not great in absolute terms, being 2 cents, but it is 71% more than conventional power. Such a difference can only be termed huge. This is a grave slip from the author. Similarly there is no mention about the safety issues of using hydrogen on a large scale by unskilled people. It is very explosive in nature, which has caused several gruesome industrial accidents. The prognosis for large scale use of the gas by public is not very bright.

The book is recommended.

Rating: 3 Star