The End of Oil

Title: The End of Oil – The Decline of the Petroleum Economy and the Rise of a New Energy Order

Author: Paul Roberts

Publisher:  Bloomsbury, 2005 (First published 2004)

ISBN: 978-0-7475-7081-3

Pages: 341

No one, who is familiar with the vagaries of oil-dominated world energy order would doubt about the urgent need for a new order based on some other resource than oil. Uncertainties in supply, exploration, transportation and pricing make this commodity a hugely expensive one for most countries. Paul Roberts’ excellent work on the energy scenario and illuminating discussions about the future alternatives serve to be an eye opener to society. End of Oil, is a very good effort to strike at the root cause of the problem and suggest viable alternatives when supply of oil would surely be restricted in the not-too-distant future.

The book begins with a good introduction on world economy based on energy. It all started with firewood, but excessive cutting denuded the forests too soon, by middle ages. Around 13^th century, wood was in short supply. Coal rose to fill the vacuum and rose to become a major commodity by 16^th century. Coal’s dominance lasted for three centuries, but the discovery of crude oil, a cleaner fuel which also moved automobiles displaced coal from almost every sphere of activity in which the quantity is low. The last century was definitely an era of oil. It controlled every aspect of production, transportation and every sphere of economic operations. World wars were fought to control the sources of oil. Allied forces could win both world wars because they could force the Axis powers out of oil supplies. The lust for oil accounts also for unexplained events like Japan’s invasion of Pearl Harbour in 1941. It was mainly to prevent the U.S. Navy from blocking Japanese tankers reaching oil-rich Indonesia which was already under their rule. Similarly, Germany embarked on a disastrous invasion of USSR to reach the oil rich territories of Azerbaijan and nearby Caspian.

Today, the oil prices are booming. Much depends on the issue of when the peak in oil production appear. After that event, production would go down each year, though demand would continue its increasing spiral as more and more countries try to reach the rewards of economic upliftment. The estimates for available oil is very tricky – it also reflects the thinking of the organisation which prepared the estimate. Generally, governments and oil companies paint a rosy picture guesstimating the peak not to come before several decades are past. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Energy Information Administration are the two prominent organisations having extensive statistics, but their figures are wildly optimistic, deliberately designed so to placate political masters. As non-OPEC oil is exhausted, the world would be at the mercy of OPEC, which is politically unstable, religiously fanatic and still keeping an anti-Western, medieval mindset.

Climate change, resulting from man-made global warming is a very serious issue associated with the energy order based on oil. A way-out appeared in the form of Kyoto Protocol in 1997 which sought to curb the CO₂ emissions by countries. The developed nations took the lead in declaring self-imposed restrictions in industrial emissions. However, the agreement was a dead horse right from the very beginning due to intransigent policies of the U.S who saw the entire episode as an orchestrated European plan to undercut the American economy by imposing crippling emission standards. U.S., the world’s largest polluter is not willing to acknowledge the fact and contribute to mitigating action. CO₂ level, which is 370 ppm at present may shoot up to 550 ppm in the not too distant future, which would tip the world to irreversible warming. Reduction in emissions is only possible with new technologies. Fuel cell is an option, which generate electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen. Emission is nil, steam being the only thing going out. At present, the technology is still in its infancy and costly. It faces huge engineering challenges to enter commercial viability, but with volume, the issues are expected to be settled.

Renewable energy is the alternative that is going to make some impact in the coming decades. Solar cells and wind energy are the media of choice. With technological improvements and economies of scale, both technologies can show impressive growth and be competitive with coal and gas-based power. The most important drawback facing them at present is the intermittency and lower power density. Wind and sunshine is not available continuously and requires larger equipment to be installed to produce a given power than traditional sources like coal or gas. A solar panel may provide a maximum of 20% of installed capacity, wind farm 33%, while nuclear gives 80% and coal and gas equalling 90%. This necessitates companies to overbuild, to install more than is required, to cater to the needs of consumers. If 100 kW is required to be produced, in the case of solar, this means 500 kW capacity has to be installed, to get the required power. As they require more area per unit power, these renewable sources are to be moved away from urban areas, causing long transmission lines to be installed.

In lengthy explanations of the different circumstances associated with oil economy, Paul Roberts lists out an action plan for the upcoming energy order. Any upset in the oil pipelines, actual or perceived is bound to cause lasting effects on economies. Immediate switching over from oil to gas (LNG) is the prime requirement. This is only a transition phase, as it is cleaner and more abundant than oil. Development of renewable energy technologies should be undertaken at this stage. Ultimate changeover to hydrogen should begin in the next stage. Hydrogen may be produced by converting LNG or by electrolysis using renewable power. This will solve the intermittency problem as well, because during the lean time, hydrogen may be used to generate power using fuel cells. When excess power is available, it may be used to produce hydrogen and store it.

The book is a very good attempt to open the complacent eyes of Americans who abhor any exhortation to conserve or increased efficiency. In the mad rush to ever larger homes and SUVs, Americans lose sight of the critical nature of the resource they use so cavalierly or who would be controlling oil in the future. Anyone reading this book is surely motivated to at least explore the possibilities of increased fuel efficiency  for transportation or domestic purposes.

The book was written in 2004 and that is the great disadvantage. Much data is dated. It doesn’t account for the immense surge in oil prices around 2008-09. Perhaps a second edition of the book may incorporate these figures too. A lot of repetitions occur in the text, with unnecessary ballooning of descriptions. Readers get tired from such occurrences. More disappointingly, Roberts is concentrating narrowly on the American point of view. He implies that the Third World can’t see what is good for them and the world, but the U.S. need to teach them what to do. One of his worries is the surge in oil demand when third world nations begin their journey on the road to prosperity. The book presents a too rosy picture for renewable energy. As the author says, “Today, wind-generated electricity can be produced for around 4.8 cents a kilowatt-hour – around 2 cents more than the wholesale cost of electricity from coal, gas, nuclear or hydro.”,. But this argument is misleading. The difference is not great in absolute terms, being 2 cents, but it is 71% more than conventional power. Such a difference can only be termed huge. This is a grave slip from the author. Similarly there is no mention about the safety issues of using hydrogen on a large scale by unskilled people. It is very explosive in nature, which has caused several gruesome industrial accidents. The prognosis for large scale use of the gas by public is not very bright.

The book is recommended.

Rating: 3 Star