When China Rules The World

Title: When China Rules The World – The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World

Author: Martin Jacques

Publisher: Allen Lane 2009 (First)

ISBN: 978-0-713-99254-0

Pages: 437

This is a very fine work, notwithstanding its apocalyptically sounding title. Martin Jacques is a visiting senior fellow of the London School of Economics and has travelled extensively in East Asia. He has lived for years there and is a visiting professor at Renmin University, Beijing. He is a reputed columnist, author and editor and lives in London. This book considers the spectacular growth China has achieved in a short span of a few decades and the wider ramifications on the world spurred by this growth which defied every norm of western-style economies. Jacques deals every aspect of China’s progress with precise conclusions, drawing from his extensive knowledge of the land mass which may be compared to a continent in its size. China is very different from the West, due to the differences integrated into the national psyche as a natural conclusion of millennia of cultural, politicial, social, religious and educational divergences. Martin Jacques, though himself Western, has transcended the invisible barrier the old kingdom erected in its dealings with the outside world and brought to us valuable insights about how China operates at present, what might be the direction it might take in the future and how its neighbours and fellows in the world comity of nations should treat this new superpower in the decades to come.

Economic power was invariably linked to military strength for the West. U.S. economy leapfrogged from 8.8% of the world in 1870 to 27.3% in 1950, while outdistancing Britain, the world’s superpower in the 19^th century. Though the U.S. share has since dropped to just over 20% in 2008, that is a considerable figure. It has managed its numero uno position in part to the huge spending on military which accounted for 48% of the world’s total in 2008. From this vantage point, it had exported neo-liberalist, globalizing forces all over the world with promises for a free market, rule of law and democratic norms, which are the hallmarks of western-style societies. These traits made that society universal in its impact since it was copied with little change by the devloping nations. USSR was the enemy of U.S., but it was culturally identical with it. China is quite a different proposition. It is to be regarded as a civilization-state and not as an ordinary nation-state cast in the westphalian model. Also, it is not multiracial as 92% of the populace consider themselves to be Han Chinese. If China doesn’t change in spite of its economic quantum jump, the world may have to adjust to it.

Jacques then explains why China went behind to become a poor nation, though its estimated GDP was the highest in the world at the end of 18^th century and which led others culturally. Britain and China were equal in parameters like life expectancy, other progess and technical innovations. However, China’s arable land between the Yellow river and Yang tze, though fertile,  was overused with declining margins making food production problematic. Britain could outpace all others in a swoop due to its free imports from its colonies and the discovery of coal deposits at home. The colonial produce were used to power British industries and the colonial manipulations mandated a powerful military which was always on guard against native uprisings and intrigues by other colonials. China had none of these. It had no colonies in the western sense. Its sphere of influence was based on the mind, as the links were cultural. It had coal reserves, but it was far away from population centres and its military was primitive. These factors made the Chinese subservient to European powers as evidenced from the Opium wars, wars against Japan, unequal trade treaties imposed upon the Chinese and annexation of large parts of ports. U.S didn’t have much overseas colonies, but the vast resources available in its backyard paved the way for its status as a superpower. Japan rose to preeminence after Meiji Restoration in 1868 which opened up the country to foreign trade. China became the underdog at the beginning of the 20^th century. After decades of internecine warfare mixed with fights against colonizing forces, Communists assumed power in 1949.

If we look at its history stretching back millennia, a different story is seen. China was unified at roughly along the present borders 2000 years ago. During Song dynasty (960 – 1279), technical innovations like paper money, wooden block printing, spinning machine and other such devices were developed. China briefly entered into an era of international trade and maritime exploration during the Ming dynasty (1368 – 1644). Admiral Zheng He reached as far as the eastern African coast in vessels too big as compared to Columbus’ ships on his voyage to America. But quite unexpectedly, the empire decided to halt all marine operations and again reconciled its position as a land-based monarchy. It was a moment in history when a country deliberately decided to let go a golden opportunity to surge forward.

Chinese economy suffered during the reign of Mao Zedong and was subject to some of the worst purges in human history though the author chooses to keep silent about the period from 1949 to Mao’s death in 1976. Independent estimates make 40 to 70 million killings during this period, particularly during the Great Leap Forward  and Cultural Revolution. A mention of this tumultous period would have made the book a comprehensive treatise, but would definitely have resulted in the author losing his influence on present-day authorities in China. The economy picked up after 1978 due to the reform processes initiated by Deng Zhao Ping. New economic zones like Guang dong which was exempt from crippling laws prospered immensely. Internal savings rate picked up and provided the capital for reinvestment both at home and abroad. Chinese households save 25.3% of their disposable income whereas the ratio is 6.4% in the U.S in 2002. There were 54% of the people below poverty line in 1980, which tumbled to just 9% in 2000! China was transformed into the world’s workshop and multinationals transferred their production bases. The New China’s GDP consists of 70% foreign trade though making it vulnerable to external disturbances. The circumvent this disparity, the government is trying to increase domestic consumption. Its prosperity was not evenly distributed over the land, as the ratio of GDPs of the richest and poorest provinces became 10:1. This trend, if left unheeded, may strain the cohesiveness which had long been the hallmark of Chinese civilization. The growth also neglected the environment, as “The result is a huge ecological deficit of two centuries accumulated in just a few decades: growing water shortages, over three-quarters of river water that is unsuitable either for drinking or fishing, 300 million people lacking access to clean drinking water, rampant deforestation, sixteen of the world’s twenty worst-polluted cities, acid rain affecting a third of Chinese territory, desert covering a quarter of the country, and 58% of land classified as arid or semi-arid” (p.170).

China’s transformation from a command economy to market economy was smooth and without the tragic sequences felt by the European communist parties. Unlike Russia, which privatized its state enterprises at rock bottom prices for cronies, China maintained these institutions and started reaping profits from them. Attrition was allowed to prune the number to more manageable levels and it was reduced from 120,000 in mid-90s to 31,750 in 2004. During this period, China made huge trade surplus with U.S. But it reinvested the amount in U.S. treasury bonds. Since the rate of return from these bonds is minimal, China doesn’t find them attractive, but if they should withdraw a portion of the amount, the resulting drop in dollar values would seriously affect China’s own foreign reserves, which is in dollars. The impact of China on world business had been ultracheap consumer products worldwide, while at the same time pushing up commidities prices including oil. Primary producers find this attractive while the developed nations experience the problems of increasing raw material prices and no markets for their expensive final products. The blue-collar workers are also losing jobs since the manufacturing is moving to China, owing to the extremely cheap labour available there. If matters continue like this, the west may resort to protectionism of some sort, ending its own declared era of globalization.

Jacques urges not to evaluate China on democratic norms coined by the west. Confucianism, once denounced by the Communists, is on the ascendant in China and it is an elitist philosophy, with high moral commitments for the bureaucrats with no accountability to the masses. It assumes that the masses are ignorant and should be guided along the right path by people having authority, like a patriarch does in his family. This system is different from western ideals and anyway, democracy was still in its infancy in the western world when the industrial revolution took off in a big way. Reforms are definitely anticipated in due course, with the possibility that the communist party transforming in a ‘revolutionary’ manner, shredding all affiliations with Leninism. Another aspect to be kept in mind is that even though China should assume top position by 2030 as predicted, its per-capita GDP would still be in the lower-middle group, making it both a developed and developing country at the same time.

A morbid attitude exhibited by many Chinese is racism. They designate their country as the Middle Kingdom, which exists between heaven, where the gods and forefathers reside and the earth, where the lowly humans live. Racial prejudice is rampant and people with black or brown skins find it disparaging. The problem would escalate if not attended in the light of thousands of foreign students now regularly admitted to Chinese universities. The diaspora also exhibits this behaviour, sometimes even against their hosts! It is also true that the overseas Chinese themselves are subject to some kinds of discriminatory practises. This may partly be prompted by the close knit nature of overseas communities with little regard to outsiders and maintaining close ties with their homeland. The author asserts that the legacy of Han Chinese is not likely to wane in the near future. China spends only a very small portion of their GDP for military, but border disputes are unrelentingly followed up. The skirmishes of Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea with Vietnam are cases in point. China shows restraint and good behavious to its neighbours while singlemindedly engaged in economic development, while there is no guarantee that it would be continued indefinitely, once it has reached a position with which it can unleash its hegemony in East Asia. It used military force in 1995 against Philippines, in 1956, 1974 and 1988 against Vietnam when China took six islands in the Spratly area sinking three Vietnamese ships and killing 72 seamen.

Global perspectives of China are discussed in good detail, taking each case separately. China started wooing Africa in the 80s with the aim of obtaining raw materials from the resource-rich continent. Economic assistance to several nations followed, but Africa still is in a colony-style relationship with its new benefactor. It exports primary commodities and receives finished goods in return like it did with Europe in the heydays of colonialism. China’s financial assistance is, however, more liberal than IMF or World Bank as it don’t impose any restrictions on the regime’s performance in other areas like human rights. In the Middle-east, China’s long term ally is Iran, since it is antagonistic to U.S, but it follows a cautious line here, as it clearly knows that U.S. won’t allow anything there which would affect its own interests. China’s relations with Russia has improved substantially, with demilitarization at the border and extending Russia’s oil pipe lines to China. But an element of suspicion is still present on the Russian side since the number of Chinese immigrants, legal and illegal increased many fold in its eastern provinces due to the porous nature of border between the two countries. With India, China already has running border disputes, but they are now sidelined effectively. China’s arming of Pakistan would be a serious detriment which may force India to join U.S. in the region’s balance of power. China also tries to increase its presence in South Asia and also the Indian ocean with close links to Myanmar. In all its dealings with the external partners, the striking note is the friendship with which it handles the partners. It doesn’t even possess an aircraft carrier.

In the last chapter, the author summarizes the eight difference that define China. They are,

1) China is not a nation-state in the traditional sense, but a civilization-state.

2) China is likely to conceive of its relationship with East Asia in terms of a tributary-state rather than nation-state.

3) There is a distinctively Chinese attitude towards race and ethnicity

4) It operates on a quite different continental-sized canvas to other nation states

5) The nature of Chinese polity is highly specific, with little popular involvement in decision making

6) Chinese modernity, like other East Asian modernities, is distinguished by the speed of the country’s transformation

7) Since 1949, it has been ruled by a Communist regime which has changed colours after 1978.

8) China will combine the characteristics of both a developed and developing country for several decades to come.

Jacques describes some amusing aspects of Chinese social life. While the standard greeting in English when two people meet is “How are you?”, in Chinese, it is “Have you eaten?”, which shows the prominent place cuisine has in society. In fact, this is long rooted. The Chronicle of Zhou dynasty (1122 – 256 BCE) which was published several millenia ago contains descriptions of 2271 items of wine and food out of a total of 4000 items. Also, the immense time scales on which Chinese plans are based are mind boggling for westerners. When Henry Kissinger asked the premier, Zhou Enlai in 1972 about his opinion on the consequences of the French Revolution, his reply was, “It is too early to say”!

The book is splendidly written with a humongous bibliography and references. A lot of maps and statistics are inserted at the right places to make the grasping of ideas easy. In fact, Jacques’ scholarship appears to extend to other East Asian countries as well, particularly Japan. The empathetic attitude exhibited by the author towards things Chinese is a refreshing change of view, coming from a westerner.

On the downside, the author’s poor regard of democracy as a pre- or post-condition of economic prosperity is unsettling. In a bid to whitewash China’s own style of authoritarianism, his assertions seem to have outstepped its moral precincts. Some of the graphs would have been more legible if it were reproduced in colour as the number of wavy lines made it difficult to tell them apart. The greatest drawback would be the author’s partisan silence on the mass murders during the Mao era. Any book on China wouldn’t be complete without at least a footnote on how its greatest leader massacred millions of its children.

The book is highly recommended.

Rating: 3 Star