Countdown to Crisis

Title: Countdown to Crisis – The Coming Nuclear Showdown With Iran

Author: Kenneth R Timmerman

Publisher: Three Rivers Press 2006 (First published 2005)

ISBN: 1-4000-5369-2

Pages: 332

A sensationalist book cleverly designed to alarm the gullible American readership against the nuclear bomb being devised by Iran. The author has deep relations with the CIA and there were allegations in Iran that the author himself was a CIA agent. We can’t jump into such extravagant conclusions from the available data. Timmerman follows the established U.S. dictum that Iran, now ruled by religious leadership is an axis of evil, engaged in terrorist activities through proxy and clandestinely developing nuclear and chemical warheads, ostensibly to use against the western world. No doubt, Iran is not a place to live for the secular or moderates, but the extreme depths to which that nation is credited is clearly undeserving. Timmerman has exceeded fair criticism at many places.

Even though the erstwhile Shah was an American puppet, relations between the two countries soared during the Islamic revolution of 1979, spearheaded by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It sunk to a low during the hostage crisis in which American diplomats were held hostage by the revolutionaries for 444 days. This was the incident which planted in the American mind an unremitting hatred to Iran, which funded the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon to blow up U.S. military bases there, killing hundreds of marines.

This book is concerned with the story of Iran’s nuclear ambitions which began in 1984. Khomeini was initially against the concept of Iran using nuclear weapons, but the pragmatic speaker of the Majles and later President of Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani was instrumental in reversing the leader’s decisions in this regard. Necessary blueprints for the equipments and machinery for uranium enrichment were stolen from Europe and handed over by Pakistani enterpreneur-cum-scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan. Iranian technicians were trained in Pakistani nuclear establishments. Iran’s quest for generating power from nuclear stations suffered a setback when a reactor under construction at Bushehr was bombed and destroyed by Iraq during the 8-year war. Iran availed every ruse to hoodwink the IAEA inspectors – Timmerman is very harsh on two directors general, Hans Blix and Mohammed El Baradei – an continued with an enrichment program. The author asserts that by now, Iran might be possessing a few nuclear warheads.

U.S. always stepped up the pressure on the middle-east nation irrespective of the ruling party. A deviation from the set path was alleged by Timmerman to have occurred during the era of Bill Clinton who sought to appeasing the mullahs instead of stepping up the ante. Clinton was such a pacifist that he didn’t even think about retaliation when U.S. soldiers were killed in a truck bomb explosion at Al Khobar in Saudi Arabia, which was an operation masterminded by Iran. Clinton in fact eased some of the trade restrictions in place against it and the author alleges that the Clinton Library he established upon retirement was funded $165 million by grateful American companies which gained from the opportunity of trade with the hardline Islamic republic.

Timmerman is unable to appreciate passive measures in the dealings with Iran. He proposes some imaginary scenarios in which the U.S. is attacked with nuclear weapons by a group of terrorists with links to Iran. He puts forward a five-pronged strategy to deal with the Islamic nation,

1) it must become the official policy of the government of the U.S. to support regime change in Iran,

2) we must immediately commit significant financial resources to help pro-democracy groups in Iran,

3) the U.S. President should appoint an ambassador to the Iranian people, based in Washington, DC who will convene an Iranian-style loya jirga of respected community leaders,

4) the U.S. must delegitimize the Tehran regime in every possible venue,

5) the U.S. must intensify the pressure on Tehran over its nuclear weapons program by insisting that the international community take tough action against it.

The book is interesting to read, being written in a sensationalist, investigative journalism kind of way. It lacks depth, but it is more than compensated by the spread of information. A good case is put forward by the author.

There are some parts which don’t stand critical scrutiny. He asserts that Osama bin Laden was being harboured in Iran, as “today, Iran’s leaders are plotting new attacks on the West with Osama bin Laden, whom they are sheltering inside Iran” (p.5). We now know this to be false. Timmerman is quite contemptuous to all Asian countries, not only Iran, and puts even India among the list of rogue states, as he says, “Senator John Glenn published a list of Leybold sales of nuclear production equipment in his newsletter, Proliferation Watch. Leybold’s clients included government entities in North Korea, India, Pakistan, Libya, Iraq, Iran and South Africa – a veritable rogues’ gallery of nuclear wannabes” (p.77). Such sweeping accusations smack of racial predilections on the part of the author, as the German and French firms which supply equipment to these nations are not harangued. Blatant statements of American supremacy abound in the book and a revulsive statement goes like this, “Because the United States is the most powerful nation on earth, most Americans don’t pay much attention when foreign leaders visit Washington. The visits are so numerous that the Washington Times publishes a weekly calendar of them every Monday. If its Tuesday, it must be the prime minister of Belgium or the president of Kazakhstan” (p.103).

Timmerman’s blanket accusations of sales of dual-use technology is not in proportion to the perceived threat. Even gas chromatographs, which is a common enough equipment in medium sized labs are portrayed as sensitive equipment used for uranium enrichment. Factual errors occur at other places. Location of Iran’s secret nuclear weapons research facility of Moallem Kalayeh was given as 36 deg 60 min (p.113), where in fact, 60 min is the next degree. Also, the author is silent about the Iran-Contra deal, in which the U.S. supplied weapons to Iran, and channelled the money arising out of the sale to support Contra guerillas in Nicaragua. Such a serious lapse in unfathomable by looking at the extensive coverage of plots and ideas by him.

The book is recommended for not-so-serious reading.

Rating: 3 Star