Super Economies

Title: Super Economies – America, India, China & the Future of the World

Author: RaghavBahl

Publisher: Penguin Books, 2016 (First published 2015)

ISBN: 9780143426073

Pages: 392

Most of the twentieth century saw the cold war between two superpowers who tried to outsmart the other wherever they competed, such as finance, trade, business, sports or space. A string of states sharing ideological values aligned with them with no practical interactions across the battle lines. Geopolitical compulsions turned the table on the Communist bloc in the 1980s, bringing down the Berlin Wall and fall of the Soviet Union. The USA stood alone as the sole superpower of the world. There were people who predicted the ‘end of history’ at that point. But, the forces unleashed by American arms as a bulwark against Russian occupation in Afghanistan turned against their former masters. In a series of terrorist strikes against vulnerable American targets in the Middle East and Africa, Islamic terrorism engaged America’s strategic time and military muscle. Emboldened by weak and half-hearted countermeasures adopted by the West, al Qaeda struck at key US symbols of power on 9/11. The superpower awoke from its stupor and struck back hard at the terrorists in their Afghan strongholds and ensured a pliant regime in Iraq which housed one of the largest oil reserves in the world. However, the considerable financial drain caused by the two wars was straining the giant’s resources. The sub-prime mortgage crisis and consequent financial meltdown of 2008 stalled the growth of American economy. China, which was steadily growing after Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in 1978 and India that appeared on the scene with a litany of liberalization measures in 1991, grew by leaps and bounds. While America stagnated, India and China accelerated their pace to the level of super economies. Unlike isolation and strife, an extraordinary level of integration characterizes the age of Super Economies. The military was the most potent organ for superpowers while business and citizens engage the super economies. This book takes stock of the sum of interactions and interchange between the US, China and India, especially in the last three of four decades. Raghav Bahl is a journalist, entrepreneur, media baron and one of the most respected business leaders of India.

Bahl defines a super economy as a large and prosperous or prospering country that uses economic leadership to effect change in the world. It should also possess 15 to 20 per cent of global GDP or growing at or near double digits. BRICs countries qualify under this grouping whose growth pace quickened in the present century. Being an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China, BRICs are redefining the global political dynamics of the new century like US and the Soviet Union did in the twentieth. However, instead of the military that defined interactions between sovereign states in that era, it is the market which provides the staging ground for transnational aspirations. Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs coined the term BRICs after 9/11 attacks had inspired him to think up new ways about a developing world. The author goes on to analyze and compare the features of India and China that unifies them in some areas, while clearly differentiating in others. As can be expected, he finds India’s stature better choreographed and mature. Beijing’s motives and methods are said to be mystifying without transparency. It’s hard to know what it would do next: sack a popular leader, jail an artist, confront vessels in the South China Sea, exploit Africa’s resources, block the Internet, steal corporate secrets, arm rogue nations or further devalue the Yuan. Bahl argues for a tighter US-India alliance to help stabilize Asia and provide a political, military and economic counterweight to that uncertain force (p.18). This will help India end its neutrality of non-alignment. China doesn’t have any real allies as it follows a transactional diplomacy that promotes investing in emerging economies in exchange for access to natural resources or support at the UN.

India’s liberal democratic credentials lend it an undeniable appeal towards fellow democracies. The dynamic growth of these two large nations in Asia witnesses the coming together of a destiny that drove them forward four centuries ago. India and China accounted for half of world GDP in 1600 – 28 per cent for China and 23 for India. The comparison somewhat ends there, as the readers are surprised to learn the strict rules of censorship imposed on China’s intellectuals by the paranoia of the Communist party elite. Red-flag terms in Net searches include Taiwan, Dalai Lama, Tibet, Falun Gong, democracy activists and the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. Chinese university professors are instructed to avoid writing or speaking about seven specific subjects: universal values, freedom of the press, civil society, civil rights, an independent judiciary, elite cronyism, and the historical errors of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Bahl gives a clean summary of US-Indian relations right from the period of independence struggle. As the candle-bearers of democracy and the right of self-determination to national societies, the US maintained a supportive stance towards India’s fight against their British masters. The relationship would’ve developed further had Nehru not antagonized them with his foreign policy which was a big folly. Nehru thought himself to be above the nation, and mistook his personal convictions to state policy. Even then, Nehru rushed with folded hands and a bent knee when China invaded India in 1962. Pakistan capitalized on the estrangement between US and India caused by Nehru’s socialist policy. On two more occasions they came in handy to fulfill America’s strategic interests – the first was when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and the other was in 2001 when the US wiped Taliban out of power. After 2007, the relations between India and the US became quite cordial; America even entered into a nuclear deal with India though it still refused to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Bahl’s description of the frequently changing tone of the relationship is very appealing.

The book ends with optimism on the way forward under the leadership of Narendra Modi as India’s prime minister. In fact, the author compares him to Theodore Roosevelt of the US who reined in the robber barons of business. The book was published before Modi upset black money holders in the country with his demonetization of high-value bank notes in 2016. This too follows the hopeful prognosis Bahl prescribes for India. The growing Indian diaspora and the ease with which they get absorbed into the mainstream elicit kudos. There is a long chapter in which he appreciates the factors that help make Indians a successful society in the US.

The book is highly recommended.

Rating: 4 Star